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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still