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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.